Geopolitics is driving up diesel prices: what it means for your fleet

2026 is proving to be an erratic year at the pump for transport operators. Rising tensions in the Middle East sent oil and diesel prices sharply higher in a short space of time this spring, only for them to fall again and then climb once more in early July. That volatility, even more than the price level itself, makes cost control difficult. Here is an overview of the situation and what you can do about it.

A sharp spike in the spring

The wholesale price of diesel rose from roughly €1.74 per litre at the end of February to around €2.15 on 19 March, a jump of about 20 percent in a few weeks. By then, diesel was already well over 40 percent more expensive than at the turn of the year. In early April, the national recommended pump price even peaked at around €2.82 per litre, a record.

Then a cooling-off, but no respite

After the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following an agreement between the US and Iran in mid-June, the oil price fell back: Brent crude averaged around 85 dollars per barrel in June, well below the April peak. The pump price fell along with it to around €2.05 at the end of June. In early July, however, prices started rising again following fresh tensions. The lesson is clear: in 2026, expect fluctuations, not a stable line.

Why this hits so hard

Fuel typically accounts for 20 to 25 percent of a transport company's costs. A price jump therefore feeds straight through to the margin. The impact differs per vehicle type: while the cost per tonne-kilometre for a van rose by about 2 percent because of the fuel price jump, for a tractor unit with semi-trailer in container transport it was almost 5 percent, the hardest-hit category.

A different situation than in 2022

The comparison with the 2022 energy crisis is an obvious one, but the circumstances differ. Operators are now dealing with higher interest rates and tighter margins, which leaves less of a buffer to absorb a cost shock. Moreover, this year's diesel peak almost coincided with the introduction of the truck toll on 1 July, which puts even more pressure on the sector.

What you can do about it

• Include fuel clauses in your agreements with clients, so that you can pass on price increases;
• Consider long-term fuel agreements to dampen fluctuations;
• Give more weight to the fuel efficiency of your fleet: at high prices, an economical, aerodynamic and modern vehicle pays for itself sooner.

In a year with expensive and erratic fuel prices, every litre counts. A well-maintained, fuel-efficient used truck can be a sensible way to renew your fleet without the investment of a new one. Our team will gladly help you find equipment that suits the kilometres you drive.